Free Stock Options Probability Calculator

The Probability Calculator evaluates option prices to compute the theoretical probability of future stock prices. Data may be loaded for a symbol that has options, or data may be entered manually. To enter data for a specific symbol, enter a symbol in the text box labeled Symbol, then click Load Data for Symbol.

Data is delayed from April 11, 2024. You must subscribe to get the latest data.
	Symbol SPDR TRUST SR 1 ETF 518.00 +3.88   Thu, Apr 11 Price    Rate % Expiration  Apr 15 '24 Apr 16 '24 Apr 17 '24 Apr 18 '24 Apr 19 '24 Apr 22 '24 Apr 23 '24 Apr 24 '24 Apr 25 '24 Apr 26 '24 Apr 29 '24 Apr 30 '24 May 1 '24 May 2 '24 May 3 '24 May 6 '24 May 7 '24 May 8 '24 May 9 '24 May 10 '24 May 13 '24 May 14 '24 May 15 '24 May 16 '24 May 17 '24 May 24 '24 May 31 '24 Jun 7 '24 Jun 14 '24 Jun 21 '24 Jun 28 '24 Jul 19 '24 Jul 31 '24 Aug 16 '24 Aug 30 '24 Sep 20 '24 Sep 30 '24 Oct 18 '24 Oct 31 '24 Dec 20 '24 Dec 31 '24 Jan 17 '25 Mar 21 '25 Mar 31 '25 Jun 20 '25 Sep 19 '25 Dec 19 '25 Jan 16 '26 Dec 18 '26   Days  Next Div Date  NTM Volatility Next Amt   Enter a Lower and Upper bound: Select strike  120 130 140 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300 305 310 315 320 325 330 335 340 345 350 355 360 365 370 375 380 385 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 492.5 493 494 495 496 497 497.5 498 499 500 501 502 502.5 503 504 505 506 507 507.5 508 509 510 511 512 512.5 513 514 515 516 517 517.5 518 519 520 521 522 522.5 523 524 525 526 527 527.5 528 529 530 531 532 532.5 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 575 580 585 590 595 600 605 610 615 620 625 630 635 640 645 650 655 660 665 670 675 680 685 690 695 700 705 710 715 720 725 730 735 740 745 750 755 760 765 770 775 780 785 Select strike  120 130 140 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300 305 310 315 320 325 330 335 340 345 350 355 360 365 370 375 380 385 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 492.5 493 494 495 496 497 497.5 498 499 500 501 502 502.5 503 504 505 506 507 507.5 508 509 510 511 512 512.5 513 514 515 516 517 517.5 518 519 520 521 522 522.5 523 524 525 526 527 527.5 528 529 530 531 532 532.5 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 575 580 585 590 595 600 605 610 615 620 625 630 635 640 645 650 655 660 665 670 675 680 685 690 695 700 705 710 715 720 725 730 735 740 745 750 755 760 765 770 775 780 785 Lower Bound   Upper Bound  Probability that the future price is Below Lower Bound Between Bounds Above Upper Bound 42.6810%   13.3827% 43.9364% The probability calculations are approximations and are subject to data errors, computation error, variations in prices, bid and ask spreads, interest rates, and future undeclared dividends. This calculator estimates the probability of future prices based on current market conditions or user entered data. Factors used as a basis for the probability computations are subject to change. Read the full disclaimer.	ATM Call Price 518.00 Expected Price  518.13 Std Deviation  5.93 Option Price  2.368 Implied Vol  0.126 Delta  0.502 Gamma  0.067 Rho  0.021 Theta  -0.395 Vega  0.187   Lower Bound (Put) Option Price  1.898 Implied Vol  0.126 Delta  -0.431 Gamma  0.066 Rho  -0.018 Theta  -0.388 Vega  0.185   Upper Bound (Call) Option Price  1.903 Implied Vol  0.126 Delta  0.435 Gamma  0.066 Rho  0.018 Theta  -0.389 Vega  0.185 Calculator Help

• Price - is the current Stock Price
• Days - is the number of days in the future for which the probability will be computed. Days can be calculated by selecting an Expiration Date. Days are counted starting from the most recent trading day.
• NTM Volatility - (Near The Money Volatility), is the implied volatility interpolated from current near term, near the money option contracts for the selected stock.
• Rate - is the approximate risk free interest rate.
• Next Dividend Date - The next ex-dividend date, which may be estimated from past dividend payments.
• Next Amt - is the amount of the next dividend, which may be estimated from past dividend payments.

Probabilities are computed assuming a lognormal distribution and a graph is provided. 

• Lower and Upper bounds may be entered in the text box or selected from the list of available strikes for the selected stock.
• The NTM Implied Volatility is used to compute option prices and greeks, which are displayed in the tables on the right. They are approximations and are not based on market data. 

Greeks are computed for theoretical options at the current price, lower bound, upper bound, and days left. The calculator will compute probabilities regardless of whether an actual contract with matching price, strike, and expiration exists. Computed Greeks are NOT based on current market data, and the results may not be consistent with volatility and pricing used in other features on this site. 

Probability calculations are approximations and are subject to data errors, computation errors. variations in prices, bid and ask spreads, interest rates, and future undeclared dividends. The calculator estimates the probability of future prices based on current market conditions or user entered data. Factors used as a basis for the probability computations are subject to change. Read the full disclaimer.